Tired Treble

There are three games tonight that should see the home team have a rest advantage of the visitors. Because of the short prices, I’ve decided to go with a treble of handicap winners of these games. All of today’s bets have been placed with Paddy Power.

First up is the midnight matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves. Both these teams played last night – the Pacers lost in Dallas, whilst the Timberwolves lost in overtime to the Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks.

The Pacers already have the advantage of having played five less minutes, but also play at home tonight. The Pacers are one of the league’s best when playing at home and have a 100% win record in back-to-backs so far this season (4 wins from as many games), whilst Minnesota have won one of their two such games. I fancy the current Eastern Conference 3rd seeds to win tonight – stick the Pacers -4.5 into the treble at even money with Paddy Power. Lets see another loss for the T-Wolves to aid the 2/1 punt on them not to make the playoffs!

Next up is the Miami Heat‘s game in Houston against James Harden and the Rockets – tipping off at 00:40AM GMT. The Heat beat the Warriors last night with a last second buzzer beating three pointer from Dwyane Wade, whilst the Rockets were able to see off the Hornets in Charlotte.

Although the Heat are yet to lose in their three back-to-backs so far, the Rockets have won two of their three and have home advantage. James Harden and co. are a respectable 21-9 entering tonight’s game and I fully expect them to beat Miami tonight.

Teams playing in back-to-backs at home win at a higher rate than those playing with at least one day of rest – the Rockets returning home for this second leg of their double header should help them. Meanwhile, the Heat are coming off a three game homestead, which doesn’t bode well as home-road back-to-backs are the games with the lowest winning percentage.

This is Harden’s first game back at home since his record-breaking streak of 30-point games was snapped in Atlanta – hopefully he’ll be out to show he’s very much still a scoring machine. I’ve added the Rockets -9.5 at 10/11 to the treble.

Finally, the Utah Jazz head to Denver to face the Nuggets in the NBA’s most notorious destination for the second leg of a back-to-back (03:40AM GMT tip off). Denver’s Pepsi Center is located 5,280 feet above sea level, meaning the air is thinner and players tire quicker (especially those not used to the playing conditions).

The Jazz played in LA last night, beating the Clippers by just six points in a tight game between two teams battling for the playoffs. Tonight they face a Nuggets team that are one of the league’s top teams and vying for the #1 seed in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets have a one day rest advantage over the Jazz, having not played since their dominant victory over the Thunder at home on Tuesday. That game saw Nikola Jokic post a 36-10-9 stat line whilst Jamal Murray and Will Barton both put in supurb supporting performances. The Nuggets are a much better team than Utah, but with the home and rest advantage expect them to comfortbaly beat the Jazz. I’ve added the Nuggets -6.5 at 10/11 with Paddy Power to the treble, rounding it out at a healthy 6.29/1.

Additionally, I’ll be having a small bet on the Utah Jazz / Denver Nuggets Double Result at 9/2 (also with Paddy Power). I like to back the double result in these fatigue-affected games as they are usually relatively big prices and it’s not uncommonn to see the away team tire in the second period.

Pacers -4.5, Nuggets -6.5, Rockets -9.5 @ 6.29/1 – 1pt
Utah Jazz / Denver Nuggets Double Result @ 9/2 – ½
pt

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